Joint Military Intelligence College
Washington, DC
Professor Frank J. Hughes (Faculty, Department of Intelligence Research and Analysis) holds a Master of Science Degree in Engineering Physics from the George Washington University. While at that institution, he was an Assistant Professor of Engineering and the Principal Investigator on research contracts for the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the National Science Foundation. He also has completed advanced studies in science and management at the University of Michigan, University of Maryland, and Harvard University. Professor Hughes began his career in intelligence at the National Security Agency, where he conducted analyses of Soviet orbital and suborbital vehicles.
Working under DoD contracts while employed with the Federal Systems Division of IBM Corporation, he developed mathematical models for determining the nuclear height-of-burst for given weapon yields to assure maximum blast, heat, and radiation damage to specific target configurations.
He joined DIA in 1986 as Assistant Deputy Director of Information Systems and later, in 1988, joined the faculty of the Joint Military Intelligence College. He has taught courses in intelligence analysis and, statistical and quantitative methods. Since his studies at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and Los Alamos, New Mexico, Professor Hughes has also conducted lectures in nuclear weapons development as it relates to the issues of nuclear weapon nonproliferation/counterproliferation.
Presently, Professor Hughes’ research is directed at the application of the primary elements of qualitative intelligence analysis – Hypotheses, Evidence, Inference and Argumentation. His specific research involves the development of evidence-based case studies that reflect the necessity for intelligence analysts to reason logically and imaginatively from intelligence information to hypotheses being entertained. These case studies are now widely used in the academic research community of the Disruptive Technology Office (DTO) and are under test and evaluation with several law schools.
THE SIGN OF THE CRESCENT
The discovery and prediction of terrorist actions depends upon our knowledge of the properties, uses, discovery, and marshalling of evidence. Such knowledge allows us to be more skilled at:
generating plausible and productive hypothesis about possible terrorist actions, and
constructing defensible and persuasive arguments on hypotheses that are most favored by the evidence we have.
The exercise for this workshop, "The Sign of the Crescent" is an evidenced-based case study for intelligence analysts. Exercises such as these provide challenging assignments for imagination reasoning in generating hypotheses, applying methods (Wigmoream Analysis) for marshalling thought and evidence, and for constructing defensible and persuasive arguments.