Controlling Epidemics
pdf file of
powerpoint presentation (497 kb) |
Department of Geography
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742 |
Dr. Catherine Dibble |
cdibble@geog.umd.edu
Phone: 301-405-0637
FAX: 301-314-9299 |
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Epidemics of infectious diseases such as SARS, smallpox, and periodic killer
influenzas such as
the 1918 Flu can cause severe harm: from mortality rates as high as thirty
percent, from lost productivity
and complications even for those who recover, and especially from social and
economic disruption due to
panics and economic inactivity. Effective geographic deployments and timely
interventions can be
crucial for controlling epidemics. We have developed agent-based computational
laboratory models of
infectious disease epidemics that spread among mobile individuals who travel
between cities on richly
structured transportation networks. We can answer the following questions for
any infectious disease
affecting any population on any transportation network:
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- Which cities are at greatest risk from an epidemic?
- Which cities could serve as the most effective epidemiological “firebreaks”
to control the spread
of an epidemic to other parts of the nation; to have priority for vaccines or
quarantine enforcers?
- Which airline, train, or highway routes should be blocked or carefully
monitored?
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| ONR has funded us to develop the capability for providing these answers, which
is now complete. We
have not yet been funded to develop a calibrated model for the United States,
but we could do so quickly
if the need arises and if funding becomes available. |
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Figure 1: |
A GeoGraph model of SARS, where individual agents travel between
communities and bar
charts for each community show the epidemiological status of its population.
Green agents are
healthy, pink are infected, red are sick, gray are dead, and white are recovered
and immune.
The model includes super-spreader events and seasonally adjusted infectivity.
Gray links are
base links, such as highways or trains, yellow links are high-speed shortcuts in
the landscape,
such as airline routes. |
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Funding |
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PI |
Office of Naval Research, Grant N000140310062: A GeoGraph Simulation Platform
for
Modeling Mobile Agents on Richly Structured Network Landscapes, 2002-2003,
$74,951. |
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PI |
Office of Naval Research, Grant N000140310062: GeoGraph Network Models of
Epidemics and Civil Violence, 2003-2004, $80,000. (renewal) |
